WASHINGTON, DC — DSPolitical announced today that it is launching new targeting functionality to reach likely Democratic primary voters with programmatic digital ads amid a turnout boom, the likes of which have not been seen in decades.
Last week, Democrats in North Carolina had the largest midterm primary turnout in more than 60 years, even without a hotly contested statewide contest driving voters to the polls. Meanwhile, Texas Democrats, buoyed by James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett, delivered the largest midterm primary turnout since 1970.
Because of the volatility of Democratic primary turnout in 2026, traditional targeting methods designed to reach the most likely voters may leave scores of likely Democratic primary voters unengaged. Case in point: In 2025, Virginia saw the highest Democratic primary turnout in decades, but even among voters who almost never miss an election, more than one in three still did not vote in the 2025 Democratic primary.
To address this gap, DSPolitical will soon offer clients exclusive access to precise digital ad targeting powered by Catalist’s 2026 Democratic Primary Vote Propensity model, a new dataset designed to help campaigns identify voters most likely to participate in upcoming Democratic primaries in May and June: California, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
“Turnout is through the roof, making Democratic primaries more competitive and less predictable, so campaigns need better ways to understand who is actually going to show up and vote,” said Mark Jablonowski, CEO of DSPolitical. “In 2026, Democrats need to use every tool in the party’s toolbox to take back Congress, but to make it to November, they must first win their primaries. With an increasingly fractured media environment, record retirements, and competitive primaries, it won’t be easy. That’s why precise digital targeting with Catalist’s 2026 Democratic Primary Vote Propensity Model is so important.”
The launch comes as the 2026 election cycle is expected to feature crowded Democratic primaries across the country, with record congressional retirements, open seats, and competitive challenges creating unpredictable electoral environments. At the same time, participation in primaries has become more difficult to forecast as turnout surges and new voters enter the electorate.
Catalist’s model, available exclusively to campaigns and organizations working with DSPolitical to power their digital advertising, ranks registered voters on a 0-100 scale based on their relative likelihood of voting in a Democratic primary in 2026. Unlike general election turnout models, it is designed specifically to reflect the dynamics of primary contests, where participation patterns can vary significantly across states and election cycles.
“Even with record turnout, primary elections are often decided by relatively small slivers of the overall electorate, and accurately identifying likely participants can be one of the hardest challenges campaigns face,” said Amanda Peterson Beadle, director of digital engagement at Catalist. “The 2026 Democratic Primary Vote Propensity Model will help campaigns better understand who is likely to vote in these important contests so they can plan outreach more effectively.”
Campaigns that can more accurately identify likely primary voters are better positioned to allocate resources efficiently and ensure their messages reach the voters most likely to decide the Democratic nomination. By providing access to Catalist’s new model for upcoming 2026 primaries, DSPolitical is helping campaigns adapt to a cycle where precision targeting may matter more than ever.
For more insights on the evolving Democratic primary landscape, explore DSPolitical’s latest eBook, Primary Pressure: How Democrats Can Break Through and Win Primaries, which outlines the key dynamics shaping the 2026 cycle and how campaigns can engage the voters who will decide it. Download the free eBook here.